Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China, project its trends from 2022 to 2030, and provide valuable insights for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis. Methods The incidence and mortality rates of acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. The change rates and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for each indicator were calculated. Additionally, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to project the incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China from 2022 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rates of acute hepatitis A (AHA), acute hepatitis B (AHB), acute hepatitis C (AHC), and acute hepatitis E (AHE) in China all showed a declining trend (EAPC=?1.980%, ?2.664%, ?2.078%, ?1.686%; P<0.05), with a particularly marked decrease in mortality (EAPC=?11.662%, ?7.411%, ?12.541%, ?7.504%; P<0.05). According to ARIMA model projections, the incidence rates of AHA and AHB were expected to continue declining from 2022 to 2030, while the incidence rates of AHC and AHE were expected to rise. In 2030, the projected incidence rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 890.425/100000, 824.158/100000, 59.202/100000, and 300.377/100000, respectively. The mortality rates of AHA, AHC, and AHE were projected to remain stable from 2022 to 2030, while the mortality rate of AHB was expected to decline. In 2030, the projected mortality rates of AHA, AHB, AHC, and AHE were 0.002/100000, 0/100000, 0.004/100000, and 0.011/100000, respectively. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the overall incidence and mortality of acute viral hepatitis in China showed a downward trend. However, the incidence rates of AHC and AHE may present an upward trend in the future, which suggests that the government and relevant health authorities should adjust their prevention and control strategies in a timely manner.
Objective To evaluate the predictive effect of three machine learning methods, namely support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and decision tree, on the daily number of new patients with ischemic stroke in Chengdu. Methods The numbers of daily new ischemic stroke patients from January 1st, 2019 to March 28th, 2021 were extracted from the Third People’s Hospital of Chengdu. The weather and meteorological data and air quality data of Chengdu came from China Weather Network in the same period. Correlation analyses, multinominal logistic regression, and principal component analysis were used to explore the influencing factors for the level of daily number of new ischemic stroke patients in this hospital. Then, using R 4.1.2 software, the data were randomly divided in a ratio of 7∶3 (70% into train set and 30% into validation set), and were respectively used to train and certify the three machine learning methods, SVM, KNN and decision tree, and logistic regression model was used as the benchmark model. F1 score, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy of each model were calculated. The data dividing, training and validation were repeated for three times, and the average F1 scores, AUCs and accuracies of the three times were used to compare the prediction effects of the four models. Results According to the accuracies from high to low, the prediction effects of the four models were ranked as SVM (88.9%), logistic regression model (87.5%), decision tree (85.9%), and KNN (85.1%); according to the F1 scores, the models were ranked as SVM (66.9%), KNN (62.7%), decision tree (59.1%), and logistic regression model (57.7%); according to the AUCs, the order from high to low was SVM (88.5%), logistic regression model (87.7%), KNN (84.7%), and decision tree (71.5%). Conclusion The prediction result of SVM is better than the traditional logistic regression model and the other two machine learning models.
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality in Zhejiang cancer registration areas from 2000 to 2021, providing a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies for gallbladder cancer. MethodsData on incidence and mortality were collected from 22 cancer registry areas in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2021, calculating the crude incidence (mortality), age-standardized incidence / mortality rate by Chinese standard population(ASR China), age-standardized incidence /mortality rate by World standard population (ASR World) and cumulative rate (0–74 years old). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated by using Joinpoint software. ResultsIn 2021, the crude incidence of gallbladder cancer in Zhejiang cancer registration areas was 6.79 per 100 000. The ASR China and ASR World were 2.99 and 2.96 per 100 000, respectively, ranking 18th of all new cancer cases. The incidence ASR China in female (3.13 per 100 000) was higher than that in male (2.85 per 100 000). The incidence ASR China in rural areas (3.01 per 100 000) was slightly higher than that in urban areas (2.97 per 100 000). The crude mortality of gallbladder cancer was 5.14 per 100 000, with the mortality ASR China and ASR World of 2.09 and 2.10 per 100 000, respectively, ranking 10th of all new cancer deaths. The mortality ASR China in female (2.19 per 100 000) was higher than that in male (1.98 per 100 000). The mortality ASR China in urban areas (2.11 per 100 000) was slightly higher than that in rural areas (2.07 per 100 000). Both the crude incidence and mortality of gallbladder cancer increased with age. The crude incidence and mortality showed an upward trend over time, with AAPC of 2.59% and 3.75%, respectively (P<0.001). The incidence ASR China did not show significant changes over time (AAPC=0.05%, P=0.856). The incidence ASR China in male and rural areas showed increasing trends over time, with AAPCs of 0.89% (P=0.016) and 1.14% (P=0.001), respectively. The incidence ASR China in female and urban areas showed no significant trends over time, with AAPCs of –0.26% (P=0.503) and –0.02% (P=0.967), respectively. The mortality showed a slower upward trend after adjusting the age structure (AAPC=1.01%, P=0.020). ConclusionsThe elderly population in rural areas, especially elderly women, are the primary targets for the prevention and control of gallbladder cancer. Aging is the main factor contributing to the increase in the incidence and mortality of gallbladder cancer. After adjusting for demographic factors, the overall upward trend of the incidence in the male population and rural areas, as well as mortality, cannot be ignored.
ObjectiveTo analyze the burden and incidence of thyroid cancer in the world and in China based on the 2018, 2020 and 2022 editions of the Global Cancer Statistical Report jointly compiled by the World Health Organization (IARC) and the American Cancer Society. MethodsThe global cancer registry data of GLOBOCAN in 2018, 2020 and 2022 were compiled and analyzed, and the crude and age-standardized rates of thyroid cancer incidence in the world and China were extracted, and the incidence characteristics of thyroid cancer in the world and China were compared. ResultsIn 2022, the number of new thyroid cancers in the world was estimated to be about 821 000, ranking 7th among all cancers, with a crude incidence rate of 10.4 per 100 000. The number of new cases of thyroid cancer in China will be about 466 000, ranking third, with a crude incidence rate of 33.0 per 100 000. There are significant differences in the incidence of thyroid cancer among different genders: in 2022, the number of new cases of thyroid cancer in women is about three times that of men, and the crude incidence rate in women is significantly higher than that in men. From 2018 to 2022, the incidence of thyroid cancer increased year by year in the world and China. ConclusionsThe disease burden of thyroid cancer in China is still heavy and higher than the global level, and the prevention and treatment of thyroid cancer is still facing great challenges.
In 2022, the National Cancer Center (NCC) of China reported the nationwide statistics of 2016 using population-based cancer registry data from all available cancer registries in China, which was mainly about the cancer incidence and mortality. Cancer remains a major health problem currently in our country and requires long term cooperation to deal with. This article provided a key point interpretation and analysis of cancer prevalence data in China, and provided an analysis of several main risk factors for cancer, which was conducive to the development of cancer prevention and control programs in different regions.
ObjectiveTo analyze and compare the incidence, mortality, temporal trends, and cancer spectrum differences between China and the United States (US), providing theoretical support for cancer prevention and control in China. MethodsAge standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and cancer site composition were extracted from GLOBOCAN, Cancer Statistics 2025, the China Cancer Registry Annual Report, and other epidemiological sources. Spatial (urban-rural, sex specific) and temporal distributions were described, and average annual growth rate (AAGR) were calculated. ResultsFrom 2005 onward, China exhibited a modest rise in ASIR, whereas the US showed a decline (AAGR: 0.58 vs –0.42); nevertheless, China’s overall incidence remained lower (2022 ASIR = 201.61/100 000) than that of the US (303.60/100 000). Both countries experienced decreasing ASMR (AAGR: –1.03 vs –1.72). In both nations, male ASIR and ASMR were higher than female. Since 2005, the top three US cancers had remained prostate (men) or breast (women), lung and colorectal cancer. In China, incidences of lung, colorectal, female breast and thyroid cancers had continued to rise, while stomach and liver cancer incidences had declined yet still rank high among men. Urban ASIR in China exceeded rural rates, whereas rural ASMR was higher than urban counterparts. ConclusionsAccelerating population ageing and lifestyle transitions have driven an upward incidence trend in China, accompanied by a shift towards a mixed pattern of traditional and emerging cancer risks. Drawing on US experience, China should intensify tobacco control measures, expand organized screening and early detection programs, implement comprehensive interventions for priority cancers, strengthen primary level capacity and improve treatment access in rural areas, thereby establishing a more effective national cancer prevention and control system.
ObjectiveTo systematically analyze the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer globally and in China from 2018–2022 based on GLOBOCAN 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions released by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, and summarize the main influencing factors to provide reference for the formulation of prevention and control strategies and clinical practice of pancreatic cancer in China. MethodsWe collected and organized data on pancreatic cancer incidence cases, death cases, crude incidence, crude mortality, age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW), and age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population (ASMRW) from the GLOBOCAN database. Combined with socioeconomic parameters such as human development index (HDI) and national income levels, we conducted comparative analysis of the distribution characteristics of pancreatic cancer globally and in China across different regions, age groups, and genders. ResultsFrom 2018 to 2022, incidence number of global pancreatic cancer increased from 458 000 cases to 511 000 cases in 2022, with crude incidence rising from 5.4/100 000 to 6.5/100 000. Deaths increased from 432 000 cases to 467 000 cases, with crude mortality rising from 5.7/100 000 to 5.9/100 000, while ASMRW decreased from 4.4/100 000 to 4.3/100 000. In China, incidence number of pancreatic cancer increased from 116 000 cases in 2018 to 119 000 cases in 2022, accounting for 23.3% of global cases, with crude incidence maintained at (8–9)/100 000. Deaths decreased from 110 000 cases to 106 000 cases, with crude mortality declining from 7.8/100 000 to 7.5/100 000 and ASMRW decreasing from 4.9/100 000 to 3.9/100 000. In 2022, countries with very high HDI had pancreatic cancer ASIRW of 7.9/100 000 and ASMRW of 6.9/100 000, significantly higher than low HDI countries at 1.4/100 000 and 1.3/100 000. Pancreatic cancer incidence showed clear age-related patterns, with the ≥75 age group having 191 157 new cases globally (crude incidence of 63.3/100 000) and 37 722 cases in China (crude incidence of 51.2/100 000). Both globally and in China, males showed higher incidence and mortality than females. ConclusionsPancreatic cancer is becoming an important public health challenge globally and in China, with incidence and mortality likely to continue rising in the future. Comprehensive prevention and control measures including tobacco control, obesity management, and diabetes monitoring should be strengthened. Early screening and standardized diagnosis and treatment for high-risk populations are crucial for improving pancreatic cancer survival rates. Improving the national cancer registry system and integrating multidisciplinary collaborative models can lay a solid foundation for precision prevention and treatment of pancreatic cancer.
Hypertension and its associated cardiovascular diseases such as stroke and ischemic heart disease result in a high burden of disease and health losses, making it the most burdensome disease in the world and one of the important public health issues in China. Currently Chinese scholars have carried out a large number of studies on the prevalence of hypertension, including regional and national prevalence studies. However, long-term follow-up studies on incidence of hypertension are relatively few and mostly limited to specific ages and regions. This paper summarizes the prevalence, incidence and epidemiological trend of hypertension in Chinese adults. The hypertension prevalence increased from 5.1% in 1959 to 27.5% in 2018, and presents an overall trend of high in the north and low in the south. The hypertension incidence is at a high level (the cumulative incidence was 33.4% after 22 years-follow-up), but there are few researches on the trend of hypertension incidence in huge region.
ObjectiveTo comprehensively evaluate the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after colorectal surgery.MethodsWe searched PubMed/Medline, Web of science, and Embase databases by computer, collected studies by using the combination of corresponding English keywords. Then, we screened literatures according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, and evaluated the quality of literatures by using Downs and Black tools. Finally, we used Stata 15.1 and R Project 3.4.1 for meta-analysis.ResultsA total of 15 studies (n=721 730) were included in the meta-analysis. The combined incidence of VTE after colorectal surgery was 2.26% [95% CI was (1.93%, 2.61%), P<0.000 1], and the incidence of VTE after adjusting for publication bias was 1.82% [95% CI was (1.53%, 2.13%), P<0.000 1]. Meta regression analysis revealed that patients’ age (P<0.000 1), smoking (P=0.000 4), open surgery (P=0.020 0), preoperative albumin level (P=0.023 6), and malignant tumor (P=0.036 4) were correlated with the incidence of VTE after colorectal surgery, which may be potential factors for heterogeneity.ConclusionsThe incidence of VTE after colorectal surgery is not insignificant. It is necessary for clinicians to be vigilant about the occurrence of VTE after colorectal surgery and provide appropriate preventive interventions in combination with patients’ own risk factors, disease-related factors, and surgical factors.
Objective To comprehensively investigate the incidence of resorption of lumbar disc herniation, and provide reference data for clinical decision-making. Methods Seven electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wangfang data and Chongqing VIP database) were searched for relevant studies that might have reported morphologic changes in lumbar disc herniation when reporting the follow-up results of patients with lumbar disc herniation treated non-surgically from inception to March, 2020. Articles were screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the total number of patients, number of patients with resorption, and other important data were extracted for analysis. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis, and subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, meta-regression analysis, and Egger’s test were performed. Results A total of 15712 articles were identified from these databases, and 48 were eligible for analysis. A total of 2880 non-surgically treated patients with lumbar disc herniation were included in the meta-analysis, 1740 of whom presented resorption. Meta-analysis revealed that the incidence of resorption was 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI) (0.46, 0.72)]. In subgroup analyses, studies that quantitatively measured the resorption of lumbar disc herniation yielded statistically higher pooled incidence [0.73, 95%CI (0.60, 0.85)] than those that used qualitative methods [0.51, 95%CI (0.34, 0.69)] (P=0.0252). The pooled incidence gradually increased in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) [0.50, 95%CI (0.15, 0.85)], non-RCT prospective studies [0.59, 95%CI (0.48, 0.70)] and retrospective studies [0.69, 95%CI (0.36, 0.95)], but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.7523). The pooled incidence varied from 0.58 [95%CI (0.54, 0.71)] to 0.62 [95%CI (0.49, 0.74)] after the sequential omission of each single study. There was no significant change in the pooled incidence [0.62, 95%CI (0.43, 0.79)] when only low-risk RCTs and high-quality non-RCT studies were included, comparing with original meta-analysis results. Meta-regression showed that measurements partially caused heterogeneity (R2=15.34%, P=0.0858). Egger’s test suggested that there was no publication bias (P=0.4622). Conclusions According to current research, there is an overall incidence of resorption of 60% [95%CI (46%, 72%)] among non-surgically treated patients with lumbar disc herniation. The probability of resorption should be fully considered before making a decision on surgery.