Comparison of current incidence, mortality and trends of cancers in China and the United States_CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY

Authors：

LI Qi ¹ , LAI Zepeng ¹ , JIANG Juxi ¹ , DENG Kaiwen ¹ , ZENG Ziqian ¹ ,  YAN Huan ² ,  CHEN Weizhong ¹

1. School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, P. R. China;
2. Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Chengdu Medical College, Xindu Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xindu, Sichuan 610500, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

YAN Huan, Email: 17628680@qq.com; CHEN Weizhong, Email: wejone@126.com

Keywords：

cancer; China-United States comparison; epidemic trend; incidence; mortality

DOI：

10.7507/1007-9424.202504082

Video：

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Objective To analyze and compare the incidence, mortality, temporal trends, and cancer spectrum differences between China and the United States (US), providing theoretical support for cancer prevention and control in China. Methods Age standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and cancer site composition were extracted from GLOBOCAN, Cancer Statistics 2025, the China Cancer Registry Annual Report, and other epidemiological sources. Spatial (urban-rural, sex specific) and temporal distributions were described, and average annual growth rate (AAGR) were calculated. Results From 2005 onward, China exhibited a modest rise in ASIR, whereas the US showed a decline (AAGR: 0.58 vs –0.42); nevertheless, China’s overall incidence remained lower (2022 ASIR = 201.61/100 000) than that of the US (303.60/100 000). Both countries experienced decreasing ASMR (AAGR: –1.03 vs –1.72). In both nations, male ASIR and ASMR were higher than female. Since 2005, the top three US cancers had remained prostate (men) or breast (women), lung and colorectal cancer. In China, incidences of lung, colorectal, female breast and thyroid cancers had continued to rise, while stomach and liver cancer incidences had declined yet still rank high among men. Urban ASIR in China exceeded rural rates, whereas rural ASMR was higher than urban counterparts. Conclusions Accelerating population ageing and lifestyle transitions have driven an upward incidence trend in China, accompanied by a shift towards a mixed pattern of traditional and emerging cancer risks. Drawing on US experience, China should intensify tobacco control measures, expand organized screening and early detection programs, implement comprehensive interventions for priority cancers, strengthen primary level capacity and improve treatment access in rural areas, thereby establishing a more effective national cancer prevention and control system.

Citation： LI Qi, LAI Zepeng, JIANG Juxi, DENG Kaiwen, ZENG Ziqian, YAN Huan, CHEN Weizhong. Comparison of current incidence, mortality and trends of cancers in China and the United States. CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY, 2025, 32(6): 702-713. doi: 10.7507/1007-9424.202504082 Copy

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2.	蔡紅霞, 劉瀟霞, 張文彬. 2011–2016年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡趨勢分析及GM(1, 1)模型預測. 現代腫瘤醫學, 2023, 31(5): 931-936.
3.	鄭榮壽, 陳茹, 韓冰峰, 等. 2022年中國惡性腫瘤流行情況分析. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2024, 46(3): 221-231.
4.	徐睿鋒, 王泓睿, 車云, 等. 中美癌癥流行特征及長期趨勢研究. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2025.
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6.	Siegel RL, Kratzer TB, Giaquinto AN, et al. Cancer statistics, 2025. CA Cancer J Clin, 2025, 75(1): 10-45.
7.	陳萬青. 2004-2005年中國惡性腫瘤發病與死亡的估計. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2009, 31(9): 664-668.
8.	張思維, 雷正龍, 李光琳, 等. 中國腫瘤登記地區2005年發病死亡資料分析. 中國腫瘤, 2009, 18(12): 973-979.
9.	張思維, 雷正龍, 李光琳, 等. 中國腫瘤登記地區2006年腫瘤發病和死亡資料分析. 中國腫瘤, 2010, 19(6): 356-365.
10.	陳萬青, 張思維, 鄭榮壽, 等. 中國腫瘤登記地區2007年腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2011, 20(3): 162-169.
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14.	陳萬青, 鄭榮壽, 曾紅梅, 等. 2011年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2015, 24(1): 1-10.
15.	陳萬青, 鄭榮壽, 張思維, 等. 2012年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2016, 25(1): 1-8.
16.	陳萬青, 鄭榮壽, 張思維, 等. 2013年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2017, 26(1): 1-7.
17.	陳萬青, 孫可欣, 鄭榮壽, 等. 2014年中國分地區惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2018, 27(1): 1-14.
18.	鄭榮壽, 孫可欣, 張思維, 等. 2015年中國惡性腫瘤流行情況分析. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2019, 41(1): 19-28.
19.	鄭榮壽, 張思維, 孫可欣, 等. 2016年中國惡性腫瘤流行情況分析. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2023, 45(3): 212-220.
20.	國家癌癥中心. 2020中國腫瘤登記年報. 北京: 人民衛生出版社, 2022: 66-76.
21.	國家癌癥中心. 2021中國腫瘤登記年報. 北京: 人民衛生出版社, 2023: 68-78.
22.	王少明, 鄭榮壽, 韓冰峰, 等. 2022年中國人群惡性腫瘤發病與死亡年齡特征分析. 中國腫瘤, 2024, 33(3): 165-174.
23.	Han B, Zheng R, Zeng H, et al. Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2022. J Natl Cancer Cent, 2024, 4(1): 47-53.
24.	吉雨婷, 劉斯文, 張蕓萌, 等. 中美兩國惡性腫瘤疾病負擔、流行趨勢及歸因風險因素比較. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2024, 46(7): 646-656.
25.	由金玲, 徐曉慧, 林琳, 等. 基于GBD數據分析1990年和2019年中國人群癌譜差異. 中國腫瘤, 2024, 33(1): 36-43.
26.	常青云, 杜君, 喻達. 中國人口老齡化與癌癥防治工作研究進展. 中華腫瘤防治雜志, 2022, 29(16): 1165-1170.
27.	陳偉霖, 黃麗萍, 韓煌煌, 等. 腌制食品攝入聯合吸煙、飲酒與食管癌發病關系病例對照研究. 中國公共衛生, 2018, 34(5): 643-646.
28.	Chiang TH, Cheng HC, Chuang SL, et al. Mass screening and eradication of Helicobacter pylori as the policy recommendations for gastric cancer prevention. J Formos Med Assoc, 2022, 121(12): 2378-2392.
29.	Rawla P, Sunkara T, Barsouk A. Epidemiology of colorectal cancer: incidence, mortality, survival, and risk factors. Prz Gastroenterol, 2019, 14(2): 89-103.
30.	夏陽, 朱慶超, 汪昱, 等. 高脂飲食引發腸道菌群結構改變與結直腸癌發生的相關性研究. 中國全科醫學, 2016, 19(20): 2473-2480.
31.	肥胖會增加13類癌癥風險. 中國食品學報, 2016, 16(8): 15.
32.	Wen J, Shang W, Ding Y, et al. China’s smoke-free policies in public place and the smoking cessation status of smokers. Tob Use Insights, 2023, 16: 1179173X231171483.
33.	Mittelman SD. The role of diet in cancer prevention and chemotherapy efficacy. Annu Rev Nutr, 2020, 40(1): 273-297.
34.	Chen W, Xia C, Zheng R, et al. Disparities by province, age, and sex in site-specific cancer burden attributable to 23 potentially modifiable risk factors in China: a comparative risk assessment. Lancet Glob Health, 2019, 7(2): e257-e269.
35.	韓玲, 王夢琪, 熊為鋒, 等. PM2. 5長期暴露對北京市居民肺癌發病的影響. 環境衛生學雜志, 2022, 12(12): 870-877, 902.
36.	Nagaradona T, Bassig BA, Hosgood D, et al. Overall and cause-specific mortality rates among men and women with high exposure to indoor air pollution from the use of smoky and smokeless coal: a cohort study in Xuanwei, China. BMJ Open, 2022, 12(11): e058714. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-058714.
37.	李繼華, 何俊, 闞強波, 等. 基于行政村級的云南省富源縣2010–2019年肺癌死亡空間分析. 中國腫瘤, 2021, 30(10): 759-766.
38.	Guy GP Jr, Thomas CC, Thompson T, et al. Vital signs: melanoma incidence and mortality trends and projections - United States, 1982–2030. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep, 2015, 64(21): 591-596.
39.	Buller DB, Cokkinides V, Hall HI, et al. Prevalence of sunburn, sun protection, and indoor tanning behaviors among Americans: review from national surveys and case studies of 3 states. J Am Acad Dermatol, 2011, 65(5 Suppl 1): S114-S123.
40.	Zhang M, Bao H, Zhang X, et al. Breast cancer screening coverage - China, 2018–2019. China CDC Wkly, 2023, 5(15): 321-326.
41.	Zeng H, Ran X, An L, et al. Disparities in stage at diagnosis for five common cancers in China: a multicentre, hospital-based, observational study. Lancet Public Health, 2021, 6(12): e877-e887.
42.	Zhu D, Shi X, Nicholas S, et al. Estimated annual prevalence, medical service utilization and direct costs of lung cancer in urban China. Cancer Med, 2021, 10(8): 2914-2923.
43.	Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Giri S, Patel S, et al. Overall survival based on oncologist density in the United States: a retrospective cohort study. PLoS One, 2021, 16(5): e0250894. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250894.
44.	Li X, Krumholz HM, Yip W, et al. Quality of primary health care in China: challenges and recommendations. Lancet, 2020, 395(10239): 1802-1812.
45.	Allemani C, Matsuda T, Di Carlo V, et al. Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000-14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries. Lancet, 2018, 391(10125): 1023-1075.
46.	Wender R, Wolf AMD. Increasing cancer screening rates in primary care. Med Clin North Am, 2020, 104(6): 971-987.
47.	Espina C, Soerjomataram I, Forman D, et al. Cancer prevention policy in the EU: best practices are now well recognised; no reason for countries to lag behind. J Cancer Policy, 2018, 18: 40-51.
48.	Xia C, Basu P, Kramer BS, et al. Cancer screening in China: a steep road from evidence to implementation. Lancet Public Health, 2023, 8(12): e996-e1005.
49.	?tor Z, Blagus R, Tropea A, et al. Net survival of patients with colorectal cancer: a comparison of two periods. Updates Surg, 2019, 71(4): 687-694.
50.	Edwards BK, Ward E, Kohler BA, et al. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975–2006, featuring colorectal cancer trends and impact of interventions (risk factors, screening, and treatment) to reduce future rates. Cancer, 2010, 116(3): 544-573.

1. Qi J, Li M, Wang L, et al. National and subnational trends in cancer burden in China, 2005-20: an analysis of national mortality surveillance data. Lancet Public Health, 2023, 8(12): e943-e955.
2. 蔡紅霞, 劉瀟霞, 張文彬. 2011–2016年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡趨勢分析及GM(1, 1)模型預測. 現代腫瘤醫學, 2023, 31(5): 931-936.
3. 鄭榮壽, 陳茹, 韓冰峰, 等. 2022年中國惡性腫瘤流行情況分析. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2024, 46(3): 221-231.
4. 徐睿鋒, 王泓睿, 車云, 等. 中美癌癥流行特征及長期趨勢研究. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2025.
5. International Agency for Research on Cancer. Global cancer observatory. [2025-04-07]. https://gco.iarc.fr/.
6. Siegel RL, Kratzer TB, Giaquinto AN, et al. Cancer statistics, 2025. CA Cancer J Clin, 2025, 75(1): 10-45.
7. 陳萬青. 2004-2005年中國惡性腫瘤發病與死亡的估計. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2009, 31(9): 664-668.
8. 張思維, 雷正龍, 李光琳, 等. 中國腫瘤登記地區2005年發病死亡資料分析. 中國腫瘤, 2009, 18(12): 973-979.
9. 張思維, 雷正龍, 李光琳, 等. 中國腫瘤登記地區2006年腫瘤發病和死亡資料分析. 中國腫瘤, 2010, 19(6): 356-365.
10. 陳萬青, 張思維, 鄭榮壽, 等. 中國腫瘤登記地區2007年腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2011, 20(3): 162-169.
11. 鄭榮壽, 張思維, 吳良有, 等. 中國腫瘤登記地區2008年惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2012, 21(1): 1-12.
12. 陳萬青, 張思維, 鄭榮壽, 等. 中國2009年惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2013, 22(1): 2-12.
13. Chen W, Zheng R, Zhang S, et al. Report of cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2010. Ann Transl Med, 2014, 2(7): 61.
14. 陳萬青, 鄭榮壽, 曾紅梅, 等. 2011年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2015, 24(1): 1-10.
15. 陳萬青, 鄭榮壽, 張思維, 等. 2012年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2016, 25(1): 1-8.
16. 陳萬青, 鄭榮壽, 張思維, 等. 2013年中國惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2017, 26(1): 1-7.
17. 陳萬青, 孫可欣, 鄭榮壽, 等. 2014年中國分地區惡性腫瘤發病和死亡分析. 中國腫瘤, 2018, 27(1): 1-14.
18. 鄭榮壽, 孫可欣, 張思維, 等. 2015年中國惡性腫瘤流行情況分析. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2019, 41(1): 19-28.
19. 鄭榮壽, 張思維, 孫可欣, 等. 2016年中國惡性腫瘤流行情況分析. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2023, 45(3): 212-220.
20. 國家癌癥中心. 2020中國腫瘤登記年報. 北京: 人民衛生出版社, 2022: 66-76.
21. 國家癌癥中心. 2021中國腫瘤登記年報. 北京: 人民衛生出版社, 2023: 68-78.
22. 王少明, 鄭榮壽, 韓冰峰, 等. 2022年中國人群惡性腫瘤發病與死亡年齡特征分析. 中國腫瘤, 2024, 33(3): 165-174.
23. Han B, Zheng R, Zeng H, et al. Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2022. J Natl Cancer Cent, 2024, 4(1): 47-53.
24. 吉雨婷, 劉斯文, 張蕓萌, 等. 中美兩國惡性腫瘤疾病負擔、流行趨勢及歸因風險因素比較. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2024, 46(7): 646-656.
25. 由金玲, 徐曉慧, 林琳, 等. 基于GBD數據分析1990年和2019年中國人群癌譜差異. 中國腫瘤, 2024, 33(1): 36-43.
26. 常青云, 杜君, 喻達. 中國人口老齡化與癌癥防治工作研究進展. 中華腫瘤防治雜志, 2022, 29(16): 1165-1170.
27. 陳偉霖, 黃麗萍, 韓煌煌, 等. 腌制食品攝入聯合吸煙、飲酒與食管癌發病關系病例對照研究. 中國公共衛生, 2018, 34(5): 643-646.
28. Chiang TH, Cheng HC, Chuang SL, et al. Mass screening and eradication of Helicobacter pylori as the policy recommendations for gastric cancer prevention. J Formos Med Assoc, 2022, 121(12): 2378-2392.
29. Rawla P, Sunkara T, Barsouk A. Epidemiology of colorectal cancer: incidence, mortality, survival, and risk factors. Prz Gastroenterol, 2019, 14(2): 89-103.
30. 夏陽, 朱慶超, 汪昱, 等. 高脂飲食引發腸道菌群結構改變與結直腸癌發生的相關性研究. 中國全科醫學, 2016, 19(20): 2473-2480.
31. 肥胖會增加13類癌癥風險. 中國食品學報, 2016, 16(8): 15.
32. Wen J, Shang W, Ding Y, et al. China’s smoke-free policies in public place and the smoking cessation status of smokers. Tob Use Insights, 2023, 16: 1179173X231171483.
33. Mittelman SD. The role of diet in cancer prevention and chemotherapy efficacy. Annu Rev Nutr, 2020, 40(1): 273-297.
34. Chen W, Xia C, Zheng R, et al. Disparities by province, age, and sex in site-specific cancer burden attributable to 23 potentially modifiable risk factors in China: a comparative risk assessment. Lancet Glob Health, 2019, 7(2): e257-e269.
35. 韓玲, 王夢琪, 熊為鋒, 等. PM2. 5長期暴露對北京市居民肺癌發病的影響. 環境衛生學雜志, 2022, 12(12): 870-877, 902.
36. Nagaradona T, Bassig BA, Hosgood D, et al. Overall and cause-specific mortality rates among men and women with high exposure to indoor air pollution from the use of smoky and smokeless coal: a cohort study in Xuanwei, China. BMJ Open, 2022, 12(11): e058714. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-058714.
37. 李繼華, 何俊, 闞強波, 等. 基于行政村級的云南省富源縣2010–2019年肺癌死亡空間分析. 中國腫瘤, 2021, 30(10): 759-766.
38. Guy GP Jr, Thomas CC, Thompson T, et al. Vital signs: melanoma incidence and mortality trends and projections - United States, 1982–2030. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep, 2015, 64(21): 591-596.
39. Buller DB, Cokkinides V, Hall HI, et al. Prevalence of sunburn, sun protection, and indoor tanning behaviors among Americans: review from national surveys and case studies of 3 states. J Am Acad Dermatol, 2011, 65(5 Suppl 1): S114-S123.
40. Zhang M, Bao H, Zhang X, et al. Breast cancer screening coverage - China, 2018–2019. China CDC Wkly, 2023, 5(15): 321-326.
41. Zeng H, Ran X, An L, et al. Disparities in stage at diagnosis for five common cancers in China: a multicentre, hospital-based, observational study. Lancet Public Health, 2021, 6(12): e877-e887.
42. Zhu D, Shi X, Nicholas S, et al. Estimated annual prevalence, medical service utilization and direct costs of lung cancer in urban China. Cancer Med, 2021, 10(8): 2914-2923.
43. Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Giri S, Patel S, et al. Overall survival based on oncologist density in the United States: a retrospective cohort study. PLoS One, 2021, 16(5): e0250894. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250894.
44. Li X, Krumholz HM, Yip W, et al. Quality of primary health care in China: challenges and recommendations. Lancet, 2020, 395(10239): 1802-1812.
45. Allemani C, Matsuda T, Di Carlo V, et al. Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000-14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries. Lancet, 2018, 391(10125): 1023-1075.
46. Wender R, Wolf AMD. Increasing cancer screening rates in primary care. Med Clin North Am, 2020, 104(6): 971-987.
47. Espina C, Soerjomataram I, Forman D, et al. Cancer prevention policy in the EU: best practices are now well recognised; no reason for countries to lag behind. J Cancer Policy, 2018, 18: 40-51.
48. Xia C, Basu P, Kramer BS, et al. Cancer screening in China: a steep road from evidence to implementation. Lancet Public Health, 2023, 8(12): e996-e1005.
49. ?tor Z, Blagus R, Tropea A, et al. Net survival of patients with colorectal cancer: a comparison of two periods. Updates Surg, 2019, 71(4): 687-694.
50. Edwards BK, Ward E, Kohler BA, et al. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975–2006, featuring colorectal cancer trends and impact of interventions (risk factors, screening, and treatment) to reduce future rates. Cancer, 2010, 116(3): 544-573.

CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY

Comparison of current incidence, mortality and trends of cancers in China and the United States

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