Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery_Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

Authors：

ZHANGWei-ran ,  ZHANGShi-jiang , SHAOYong-feng

First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

ZHANGShi-jiang, Email: shijiangzhang@hotmail.com

Keywords：

Cardiac surgery; Surgical risk prediction; Surgical mortality

DOI：

10.7507/1007-4848.20140109

Video：

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Abstract Full text Figures/Tables Video References Cited by

Surgical risk prediction is to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality with internationally authoritative mathematical models. For patients undergoing high-risk cardiac surgery, surgical risk prediction is helpful for decision-making on treatment strategies and minimization of postoperative complications, which has gradually arouse interest of cardiac surgeons. There are many risk prediction models for cardiac surgery in the world, including European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), Ontario Province Risk (OPR)score, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)score, Cleveland Clinic risk score, Quality Measurement and Management Initiative (QMMI), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA)Guidelines for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery, and Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation (SinoSCORE). All these models are established from the database of thousands or ten thousands patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a specific region. As different sources of data and calculation imparities exist, there are probably bias and heterogeneities when the models are applied in other regions. How to decrease deviation and improve predicting effects had become the main research target in the future. This review focuses on the progress of risk prediction models for patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Citation： ZHANGWei-ran, ZHANGShi-jiang, SHAOYong-feng. Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery. Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 2014, 21(3): 402-410. doi: 10.7507/1007-4848.20140109 Copy

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2.	孟新科, 主編.急危重癥評分-評價、預測、處理.北京:人民衛生出版社, 2008. 330-347.
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5.	Aust JB, Henderson W, Khuri S, et al. The impact of operative complexity on patient risk factors. Ann Surg, 2005, 241 (6):1024-1028.
6.	徐志云.心血管手術風險預測研究與現狀.中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18 (3):187-188.
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8.	Roques F, Nashof SA, Michel P, et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery:analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 15 (6):816-823.
9.	Nashef SA, Roques F, Michel P, et al. European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 16 (1):9-13.
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11.	Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models:part 1-coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88 (1 Suppl):S2-S22.
12.	Higgins TL, Estafanous FG, loop FD, et al. Stratification of morbi-dity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients.A clinical severity score. JAMA, 1992, 267 (17):2344-2348.
13.	Fortescue EB, Kahn K, Bates DW.Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for major adverse outcomes in coronary bypass grafting. Am J Cardiol, 2001, 88 (11):1251-1258.
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20.	Dahl?f B. Cardiovascular disease risk factors:epidemiology and risk assessment. Am J Cardiol, 2010, 105 (1 Suppl):S3-S9.
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24.	Gottlieb DJ, Redline S, Nieto FJ, et al. Association of usual sleep duration with hypertension:the Sleep Heart Health Study. Sleep, 2006, 29 (8):1009-1014.
25.	Gangwisch JE, Heymsfield SB, Boden-Albala B, et al. Short sleep duration as a risk factor for hypertension:analyses of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Hypertension, 2006, 47 (5):833-839.
26.	Wolk R, Somers VK. Sleep and the metabolic syndrome. Exp Physiol, 2007, 92 (1):67-78.
27.	Meigs JB, D'Agostino RB Sr, Wilson PW, et al. Risk variable clustering in the insulin resistance syndrome:the Framingham Offspring Study. Diabetes, 1997, 46 (10):1594-1600.
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31.	Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve. Radiology, 1982, 143 (1):29-36.
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33.	Nashef SA, Carey F, Silcock MM, et al. Risk stratification for open heart surgery:trial of the Parsonnet system in a British hospital. Br Med J, 1992, 305 (6861):1066-1067.
34.	Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, et al. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24 (9):882-883.
35.	Nilsson J, Algotsson L, Hoglund P, et al. Comparison of 19 pre-oper-ative risk stratification models in open-heart surgery. Eur Heart J, 2006, 27 (7):867-874.
36.	Conroy RM, Py?r?l? K, Fitzgerald AP, et al. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe:the SCORE project. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24 (11):987-1003.
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40.	Yap CH, Reid C, Yii M, et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2006, 29 (4):441-446.
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42.	Edwards FH, Grover FL, Shroyer AL, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons National cardiac surgery database:current risk assessment. Ann Thorac Surg, 1997, 63 (3):903-908.
43.	Je HG, Lee JW, Jung SH, et al. Risk factors analysis on failure of maze procedure:mid-term results. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 36 (2):272-279.
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45.	Shroyer AL, Coombs LP, Peterson ED, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons:30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models. Ann Thorac Surg, 2003, 75 (6):1856-1865.
46.	O'brien SM, Shahian DM, Filardo G, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models:part 2——isolated valve surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88 (1 Suppl):S23-S42.
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1. 江學成.手術風險預測方法解讀.中國實用外科雜志, 2007, 27 (9):746-749.
2. 孟新科, 主編.急危重癥評分-評價、預測、處理.北京:人民衛生出版社, 2008. 330-347.
3. Tez M, Yoldas O, Gocmen E, et al. Evaluation of P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM scores in patients with colorectal Cancer undergoing resection. World J Surg, 2006, 30 (12):2266-2269.
4. Haga Y, Wada Y, Takeuchi H, et al. Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS)for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery. Surgery, 2004, 135 (6):586-594.
5. Aust JB, Henderson W, Khuri S, et al. The impact of operative complexity on patient risk factors. Ann Surg, 2005, 241 (6):1024-1028.
6. 徐志云.心血管手術風險預測研究與現狀.中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18 (3):187-188.
7. Parsonnet V, Dean D, Bernstein AD. A method of uniform stratification of risk for evaluating the results of surgery in acquired adult heart disease. Circulation, 1989, 79 (6 Pt 2):I3-12.
8. Roques F, Nashof SA, Michel P, et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery:analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 15 (6):816-823.
9. Nashef SA, Roques F, Michel P, et al. European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 16 (1):9-13.
10. Tu JV, Jaglal SB, Naylor CD. Multicenter validation of a risk index for mortality, intensive care unit stay, and overall hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery. Circulation, 1995, 91 (3):677-684.
11. Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models:part 1-coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88 (1 Suppl):S2-S22.
12. Higgins TL, Estafanous FG, loop FD, et al. Stratification of morbi-dity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients.A clinical severity score. JAMA, 1992, 267 (17):2344-2348.
13. Fortescue EB, Kahn K, Bates DW.Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for major adverse outcomes in coronary bypass grafting. Am J Cardiol, 2001, 88 (11):1251-1258.
14. Eagle KA, Guyton RA, Davidoff R, et al. ACC/AHA guidelines for coronary artery bypass graft surgery:executive summary and recommendations:A report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines (Committee to revise the 1991 guidelines for coronary artery bypass graft surgery). Circulation, 1999, 100 (13):1464-1480.
15. 鄭哲, 張路, 胡盛壽.中國冠狀動脈旁路移植手術風險評估.中華心血管病雜志, 2010, 38 (10):901-904.
16. 中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE預測瓣膜手術死亡風險.中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27 (2):81-83.
17. 高華煒, 鄭哲, 胡盛壽.冠狀動脈旁路移植術危險因素評價體系的建立及應用.中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2006, 22 (3):214-216.
18. Geissler HJ, H?lzl P, Marohl S, et al. Risk stratification in heart surgery:comparison of six score systems. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2000, 17 (4):400-406.
19. 楊毅, 周曄, 張靜, 等.冠狀動脈旁路移植術危險評價系統的建立應用及臨床修正.心肺血管病雜志, 2010, 29 (3):248-250.
20. Dahl?f B. Cardiovascular disease risk factors:epidemiology and risk assessment. Am J Cardiol, 2010, 105 (1 Suppl):S3-S9.
21. Stammler J, Wentworth D, Neaton JD. Is relationship between serum cholesterol and risk of premature death from coronary heart disease continuous and graded? Findings in 356, 222 primary screenings of the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT). J Am Med Assoc, 1986, 256 (20):2823-2828.
22. Dzau VJ, Antman EM, Black HR, et al. The cardiovascular disease continuum validated: clinical evidence of improved patient outcomes:part I:Pathophysiology and clinical trial evidence (risk factors through stable coronary artery disease). Circulation, 2006, 114 (25):2850-2870.
23. Yusuf S, Hawken S, Ounpuu S, et al. Effect of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with myocardial infarction in 52 countries (the INTERHEART study): case-control study. Lancet, 2004, 364 (9438):937-952.
24. Gottlieb DJ, Redline S, Nieto FJ, et al. Association of usual sleep duration with hypertension:the Sleep Heart Health Study. Sleep, 2006, 29 (8):1009-1014.
25. Gangwisch JE, Heymsfield SB, Boden-Albala B, et al. Short sleep duration as a risk factor for hypertension:analyses of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Hypertension, 2006, 47 (5):833-839.
26. Wolk R, Somers VK. Sleep and the metabolic syndrome. Exp Physiol, 2007, 92 (1):67-78.
27. Meigs JB, D'Agostino RB Sr, Wilson PW, et al. Risk variable clustering in the insulin resistance syndrome:the Framingham Offspring Study. Diabetes, 1997, 46 (10):1594-1600.
28. Zanchetti A. The hypertensive patient with multiple risk factors:is treatment really so difficult? Am J Hypertens, 1997, 10 (10 Pt 2):223S-229S.
29. Granton J, Cheng D. Risk stratification models for cardiac surgery. Semin Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth, 2008, 12 (3):167-174.
30. Petrou M, Roques F, Sharples LD, et al. The risk model of choice for coronary surgery in the UK. Heart, 2003, 89 (1):98-99.
31. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve. Radiology, 1982, 143 (1):29-36.
32. Doll N, Kiaii B, Borger M, et al. Five-year results of 219 consecutive patients treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for refractory postoperative cardiogenic shock. Ann Thorac Surg, 2004, 77 (1):151-157.
33. Nashef SA, Carey F, Silcock MM, et al. Risk stratification for open heart surgery:trial of the Parsonnet system in a British hospital. Br Med J, 1992, 305 (6861):1066-1067.
34. Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, et al. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24 (9):882-883.
35. Nilsson J, Algotsson L, Hoglund P, et al. Comparison of 19 pre-oper-ative risk stratification models in open-heart surgery. Eur Heart J, 2006, 27 (7):867-874.
36. Conroy RM, Py?r?l? K, Fitzgerald AP, et al. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe:the SCORE project. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24 (11):987-1003.
37. Graham I, Atar D, Borch-Johnsen K, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice:executive summary:Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice (Constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J, 2007, 28 (19):2375-2414.
38. Nashef SA, Roques F, Sharples LD. et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 41 (4):734-745.
39. Bhatti F, Grayson AD, Grotte G, et al. The logistic Euro SCORE in cardiac surgery:how well does it predict operative risk? Heart, 2006, 92 (12):1817-1820.
40. Yap CH, Reid C, Yii M, et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2006, 29 (4):441-446.
41. Grant SW, Hickey GL, Dimarakis I. et al. does EuroSCOREⅡ perform in UK cardiac surgery:an analysis of 23740 patients from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Greta Britain and Ireland National Database. Heart, 2012, 98 (21):1568-1572.
42. Edwards FH, Grover FL, Shroyer AL, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons National cardiac surgery database:current risk assessment. Ann Thorac Surg, 1997, 63 (3):903-908.
43. Je HG, Lee JW, Jung SH, et al. Risk factors analysis on failure of maze procedure:mid-term results. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 36 (2):272-279.
44. Beukema WP, Sie HT, Misier AR, et al. Predictive factors of sustained sinus rhythm and recurrent atrial fibrillation after a radiofrequency modified Maze procedure. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2008, 34 (4):771-775.
45. Shroyer AL, Coombs LP, Peterson ED, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons:30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models. Ann Thorac Surg, 2003, 75 (6):1856-1865.
46. O'brien SM, Shahian DM, Filardo G, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models:part 2——isolated valve surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88 (1 Suppl):S23-S42.
47. Shahian DM, O'brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The society of thoracic surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models:part 3——valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88 (1 Suppl):S43-S62.
48. Wendt D, Osswald BR, Kayser K, et al. Society of thoracic surgeons score is superior to the EuroSCORE determining mortality in high risk patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88 (2):468-475.
49. Basraon J, Chandrashekhar YS, John R, et al. Comparison of risk scores to estimate perioperative mortality in aortic valve replacement surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2011, 92 (2):535-540.
50. Wang C, Li X, Lu FL, et al. Comparison of six risk scores for in-hospital mortality in chinese patients undergoing heart valve surgery. Heart Lung Circ, 2013, 22 (8):612-617.
51. Naylor CD, Baigrie RS, Goldman BS, et al. Revascularization Panel and Consensus Methods Group:assessment of priority for coronary revascularization procedures. Lancet, 1990, 335 (8697):1070-1073.
52. Antunes PE, Eugénio L, Ferr?o de Oliveira J, et al. Mortality risk prediction in coronary surgery:a locally developed model outperforms external risk models. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg, 2007, 6 (4):437-441.
53. Bridgewater B, Neve H, Moat N, et al. Predicting operative risk for coronary artery surgery in the United Kingdom:a comparison of various risk prediction algorithms. Heart, 1998, 79 (4):350-355.
54. Gabrielle F, Roques F, Michel P, et al. Is the Parsonnet's score a good predictive score of mortality in adult cardiac surgery:assessment by a French muhicentre study. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1997, 11 (3):406-414.
55. Pliam MB, Shaw RE, Zapolanski A. Comparative analysis of coronary surgery risk stratification models. J Invasive Cardio, 1997, 9 (3):203-222.
56. Vanagas G, Kinduris S. Assessing the validity of cardiac surgery risk stratification systems for CABG patients in a single center. Med Sci Monit, 2005, 11 (5):215-218.
57. Zheng Z, Li Y, Zhang S, et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study:how well does the Euro SCORE predict oper-ative risk for Chinese population? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 35 (1):54-58.
58. Choong CK. Sergeant P, Nashef S A, et al. The Euro SCORE risk stratification system in the current era:how accurate is it and what should be done if it is inaccurate? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 35 (1):59-61.
59. Li Y, Zheng Z, Hu S. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study:analysis of the national multicentre database of 9248 patients. Heart, 2009, 95 (14):1140-1144.
60. 中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE對手術風險的評估作用.中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27 (2):67-70.
61. Zheng S, Zheng Z, Fan HG, et al. Is the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation useful in Chinese patients undergoing heart valve surgery? Chin Med J (Engl), 2012, 125 (20):3624-3628.
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Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery

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