ObjectiveTo analyze and forecast trends in the burden of liver cancer in Yunnan Province, thereby providing a basis for the formulation of liver cancer prevention and control strategies. MethodsData on incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for liver cancer from the Global Burden of Diseases 2021 study in Yunnan Province were extracted. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends in incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), DALY rate and age-standardized DALY rate. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the trends in ASIR and ASMR from 2022–2030. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates for liver cancer in Yunnan Province increased from 5.07/100 000, 5.00/100 000, and 181.52/100 000 to 11.59/100 000, 10.39/100 000, and 316.94/100 000, respectively, with average annual percentage changes of 2.73% [95%CI (2.68%, 2.77%), P<0.001], 2.45% [95%CI (2.34%, 2.56%), P<0.001], and 1.86% [95%CI (1.77%, 1.96%), P<0.001]. ASIR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALY rate also increased from 7.20/100 000, 7.37/100 000, and 234.34/100 000 to 8.84/100 000, 8.06/100 000, and 239.26/100 000. Average annual percentage changes were 0.68% [95%CI (0.65%, 0.71%), P<0.001], 0.30% [95%CI (0.19%, 0.40%), P<0.001], and 0.11% [95%CI (0.00%, 0.22%), P=0.046]. In 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALY burden of liver cancer among male in Yunnan Province were all higher than those among female. Incidence and mortality rates increased steadily with age, peaking in the ≥85 age group, while the number of new cases, deaths, and DALYs followed a pattern of initially rising and then declining. It was projected that by 2030, the annual number of new cases and deaths from liver cancer in Yunnan Province will rise to 6 100 and 5 100, respectively, while ASIR and ASMR will decrease to 8.72/100 000 [95%CI (5.46/100 000, 11.97/100 000)] and 6.82/100 000 [95%CI (1.74/100 000, 11.91/100 000)], respectively. ConclusionsThe burden of liver cancer in Yunnan Province continued to increase from 1990 to 2021, with men bearing a heavier burden. In its future efforts to prevent and control liver cancer, Yunnan Province should consolidate primary prevention measures while precisely targeting middle-aged and elderly populations for liver cancer screening, and examine the synergistic carcinogenic effects of emerging risk factors such as metabolic liver disease.
ObjectiveTo systematically analyze the temporal trends in the burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) in Yunnan Province, China, from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), and to project the disease burden through 2030 to inform regional prevention and control strategies. MethodsData on crude prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for GBTC in Yunnan Province, China, from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from GBD 2021. Temporal trends in the age-standardized prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates (ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR) were analyzed using Joinpoint regression models, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated. Furthermore, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2030. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the crude prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates of GBTC in Yunnan Province increased from 1.01/100 000, 1.00/100 000, and 27.50/100 000 in 1990 to 3.00/100 000, 1.78/100 000, and 43.29/100 000 in 2021, respectively. After age standardization, the ASPR showed an upward trend (AAPC=1.29%), whereas the ASMR (AAPC=–0.58%) and ASDR (AAPC=–0.70%) exhibited downward trends. Regarding sex disparities, the increase in ASPR was more pronounced in males than in females (AAPC: 1.88% vs. 0.67%), while the declines in ASMR and ASDR were less steep in males than in females (ASMR AAPC: –0.20% vs. –0.92%; ASDR AAPC: –0.29% vs. –1.06%). Age-stratified analysis revealed that the ASPR increase was most prominent in the 30–34-year age group (AAPC=2.63%), and the reductions in ASMR and ASDR were most substantial in the 50–59-year age group (AAPC: –1.20% and –1.18%, respectively). Projections based on the BAPC model indicate that by 2030, the ASPR will continue to rise to 3.17/100 000, whereas the ASMR and ASDR are projected to decline gradually to 1.44/100 000 and 34.86/100 000, respectively. ConclusionsThe absolute disease burden of GBTC in Yunnan Province keeps rising. While the ASMR and ASDR have shown a declining trend, the steady growth in the ASPR points to a substantial accumulation of prevalent cases. Future public-health programmes should prioritise targeted early-detection and treatment strategies for the young- and middle-aged population.