Analysis on age-period-cohort model of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China from 1992 to 2021 and grey prediction_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

CAI Hongxia , YIN Ruoyun , QIAN Meng , XIONG Huan ,  YANG Xiujuan

Medical Quality Management Department, Chengdu Seventh People's Hospital (Chengdu Cancer Hospital/Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Chengdu Medical College), Chengdu 610041, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

YANG Xiujuan, Email: 3296736657@qq.com

Keywords：

Prostate cancer; Incidence; Mortality; Age-period-cohort model; Grey prediction model; China

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202408100

Video：

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Objective To analyze the epidemic trend of prostate cancer in China from 1992 to 2021, and predict its epidemic trends from 2022 to 2032. Methods Based on the data of Chinese population and prostate cancer incidence and mortality from Global Burden of Disease Database, the Joinpoint log-linear model was used to analyze the trends of prostate cancer incidence and mortality, use the age-period-cohort model to analyze the effects of age, period and cohort on changes in incidence and mortality, and the gray prediction model was used to predict the trends of prostate cancer. Results From 1992 to 2021, the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend, with AAPC of 5.652% (P<0.001) and 3.466% (P<0.001), and the AAPC of age-standardized incidence decreased to 1.990% (P<0.001), the age-standardized mortality showed a downward trend and was not statistically significant. The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the net drift values of prostate cancer incidence and mortality were 3.03% and ?1.06%, respectively, and the risk of incidence and mortality gradually increased with age and period. The results of the grey prediction model showed that the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer showed an upward trend from 2022 to 2032, and the incidence trend was more obvious. Conclusion The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China showed an increasing trend, with a heavy disease burden and severe forms of prevention and control, so it is necessary to do a good job in monitoring the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer, and strengthen the efficient screening, early diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer.

Citation： CAI Hongxia, YIN Ruoyun, QIAN Meng, XIONG Huan, YANG Xiujuan. Analysis on age-period-cohort model of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China from 1992 to 2021 and grey prediction. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2025, 25(7): 768-774. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202408100 Copy

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9.	林建潮. 灰色預測模型在Excel中的實現及運用. 中國醫院統計, 2021, 28(3): 286-288.
10.	張敏, 段朝暉, 徐杰茹, 等. 基于GBD數據分析與預測2000-2030年中國胰腺癌發病與死亡趨勢. 中國腫瘤, 2022, 31(11): 862-868.
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17.	洪思捷, 宋芯蕊, 陳丹琪, 等. 2013-2017年廣東省男性前列腺癌流行特征及趨勢. 現代預防醫學, 2023, 50(8): 1356-1360.
18.	周孟孟, 徐文超, 俞浩. 1990-2019年江蘇省男性前列腺癌疾病負擔分析. 實用腫瘤學雜志, 2023, 37(1): 1-5.
19.	王丹, 鄒雪平, 成姝雯, 等. 2015-2019年四川省腫瘤登記地區前列腺癌流行特征及早死疾病負擔趨勢分析. 中國腫瘤, 2024, 33(9): 709-715.
20.	劉碩, 王碩, 李慧超, 等. 2000-2017年北京市前列腺癌發病和死亡流行趨勢及發病年齡變化特征分析. 中國腫瘤, 2021, 30(7): 495-505.
21.	國務院第七次全國人口普查領導小組辦公室. 2020年第七次全國人口普查主要數據. 中國統計出版社, 2021, 7(1): 66.
22.	Schwartz SM. Epidemiology of cancer. Clin Chem, 2024, 70(1): 140-149.
23.	Popovici D, Stanisav C, Pricop M, et al. Associations between body mass index and prostate cancer: the impact on progression-free survival. Medicina (Kaunas), 2023, 59(2): 289.
24.	Rahmati S, Azami M, Delpisheh A, et al. Total calcium (dietary and supplementary) intake and prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 2018, 19(6): 1449-1456.
25.	Key TJ, Bradbury KE, Perez-Cornago A, et al. Diet, nutrition, and cancer risk: what do we know and what is the way forward. BMJ, 2020, 368: m511.
26.	徐杰茹, 陳磊, 張敏, 等. 1990-2019年中國卵巢癌發病與死亡趨勢及其年齡-時期-隊列模型分析. 中國腫瘤, 2022, 31(4): 276-283.

1. Bray F, Laversanne M, Sung H, et al. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin, 2024, 74(3): 229-263.
2. 鄭榮壽, 陳茹, 韓冰峰, 等. 2022年中國惡性腫瘤流行情況分析. 中華腫瘤雜志, 2024, 46(3): 221-231.
3. 劉燦, 李想, 王雷, 等. 2005-2014年中國前列腺癌流行特征. 中華疾病控制雜志, 2021, 25(7): 806-811.
4. 董娟, 孔虹倩, 文洪梅, 等. 云南省腫瘤登記地區2020年前列腺癌發病和死亡情況及2012-2020年趨勢分析. 實用腫瘤學雜志, 2024, 38(6): 383-387.
5. GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2133-2161.
6. GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2162-2203.
7. 李輝章, 杜靈彬. Joinpoint回歸模型在腫瘤流行病學時間趨勢分析中的應用. 中華預防醫學雜志, 2020, 54(8): 908-912.
8. 蔡迎彬, 劉廣超, 梁智超, 等. 2002-2021年中國城鄉居民胃癌死亡趨勢年齡-時期-隊列模型分析. 中華腫瘤防治雜志, 2024, 31(8): 478-485.
9. 林建潮. 灰色預測模型在Excel中的實現及運用. 中國醫院統計, 2021, 28(3): 286-288.
10. 張敏, 段朝暉, 徐杰茹, 等. 基于GBD數據分析與預測2000-2030年中國胰腺癌發病與死亡趨勢. 中國腫瘤, 2022, 31(11): 862-868.
11. 成曉芬, 閔淑慧, 郭芮綺, 等. 1990-2019年中國胃癌發病與死亡率年齡-時期-隊列分析及2020-2030年變化趨勢預測. 中國腫瘤, 2023, 32(6): 454-461.
12. Siegel RL, Giaquinto AN, Jemal A. Cancer statistics, 2024. CA Cancer J Clin, 2024, 74(1): 12-49.
13. Liu X, Yu C, Bi Y, et al. Trends and age-period-cohort effect on incidence and mortality of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2017 in China. Public Health, 2019, 172: 70-80.
14. Zeng H, Chen W, Zheng R, et al. Changing cancer survival in China during 2003-15: a pooled analysis of 17 population-based cancer registries. Lancet Glob Health, 2018, 6(5): e555-e567.
15. Zhu Y, Mo M, Wei Y, et al. Epidemiology and genomics of prostate cancer in Asian men. Nat Rev Urol, 2021, 18(5): 282-301.
16. 孫金義, 嚴亞瓊, 郭燕, 等. 2010-2019年武漢市前列腺癌疾病負擔分析及死亡率預測. 公共衛生與預防醫學, 2024, 35(1): 39-44.
17. 洪思捷, 宋芯蕊, 陳丹琪, 等. 2013-2017年廣東省男性前列腺癌流行特征及趨勢. 現代預防醫學, 2023, 50(8): 1356-1360.
18. 周孟孟, 徐文超, 俞浩. 1990-2019年江蘇省男性前列腺癌疾病負擔分析. 實用腫瘤學雜志, 2023, 37(1): 1-5.
19. 王丹, 鄒雪平, 成姝雯, 等. 2015-2019年四川省腫瘤登記地區前列腺癌流行特征及早死疾病負擔趨勢分析. 中國腫瘤, 2024, 33(9): 709-715.
20. 劉碩, 王碩, 李慧超, 等. 2000-2017年北京市前列腺癌發病和死亡流行趨勢及發病年齡變化特征分析. 中國腫瘤, 2021, 30(7): 495-505.
21. 國務院第七次全國人口普查領導小組辦公室. 2020年第七次全國人口普查主要數據. 中國統計出版社, 2021, 7(1): 66.
22. Schwartz SM. Epidemiology of cancer. Clin Chem, 2024, 70(1): 140-149.
23. Popovici D, Stanisav C, Pricop M, et al. Associations between body mass index and prostate cancer: the impact on progression-free survival. Medicina (Kaunas), 2023, 59(2): 289.
24. Rahmati S, Azami M, Delpisheh A, et al. Total calcium (dietary and supplementary) intake and prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 2018, 19(6): 1449-1456.
25. Key TJ, Bradbury KE, Perez-Cornago A, et al. Diet, nutrition, and cancer risk: what do we know and what is the way forward. BMJ, 2020, 368: m511.
26. 徐杰茹, 陳磊, 張敏, 等. 1990-2019年中國卵巢癌發病與死亡趨勢及其年齡-時期-隊列模型分析. 中國腫瘤, 2022, 31(4): 276-283.

Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Analysis on age-period-cohort model of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China from 1992 to 2021 and grey prediction

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