Trends and age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

WANG Yue ¹ ,  LIU Lurong ²

1. School of Management, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, P. R. China;
2. School of Basic Medical Sciences, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

LIU Lurong, Email: liulurong68@163.com

Keywords：

Falls; Elderly; Incidence; Mortality; Age-period-cohort model

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202312175

Video：

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Abstract Full text Figures/Tables Video References Cited by

Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the impact of age, period, and cohort on their long-term trends. Methods The joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort model were used to analysis. The annual percent change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were used to analyze the incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019. The influence of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of falls were analyzed. Results The standardized incidence and mortality rates of falls among the elderly in China showed fluctuating upward trends from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC=1.929%, 1.535%, P<0.001), The increase rate of falls incidence was higher in men than that in women (AAPC=1.928%, 1.923%, P<0.001), and the increase rate of falls mortality was lower in men than that in women (AAPC=1.407%, 1.562%, P<0.001). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the age effect and period effect coefficients of incidence and mortality of falls in Chinese elderly men and women showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, while the cohort effect coefficients showed an overall downward trend. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the age standardized incidence and mortality rate of falls among the elderly in China show fluctuating upward trends. The incidence of falls in elderly women is higher than that in men, and the mortality rate of falls in elderly men is higher than that in women. It is recommended to strengthen the prevention work for falls in the oldest old, the incidence of falls in elderly women, and the mortality of falls in elderly men.

Citation： WANG Yue, LIU Lurong. Trends and age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2024, 24(7): 783-791. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202312175 Copy

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15.	康寧, 于海軍, 陸曉敏, 等. 中國老年人跌倒發生率的Meta分析. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2022, 22(10): 1142-1148.
16.	李福鑫, 梁沛余, 段路路, 等. 西寧市區中老年人骨質疏松患病現況. 中國老年學雜志, 2021, 41(8): 1727-1729.
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21.	郭雁飛, 馬文軍, 張慶軍, 等. 中國8個省份50歲及以上人群跌倒傷害及其危險因素橫斷面研究. 中華流行病學雜志, 2018, 39(3): 258-263.
22.	Wu H, Mach J, Le Couteur DG, et al. Fall-related mortality trends in Australia and the United Kingdom: implications for research and practice. Maturitas, 2020, 142: 68-72.
23.	Valderrama-Hinds LM, Al Snih S, Chen NW, et al. Falls in Mexican older adults aged 60 years and older. Aging Clin Exp Res, 2018, 30(11): 1345-1351.
24.	張航空. 中國老年人口受教育水平現狀及其變動. 中國老年學雜志, 2016, 36(5): 1215-1216.
25.	程兆輝, 賀知菲, 許小蘭, 等. 農村地區老年人健康知識、健康行為及影響因素研究. 中國衛生事業管理, 2022, 39(8): 600-605.
26.	陳飛, 王悠清. 1990-2019年中國食管癌疾病負擔及其變化趨勢分析. 中國腫瘤, 2021, 30(6): 401-407.

1. 蔡倫, 林岑, 周鼒, 等. 老年人跌倒的公共衛生研究進展. 中國老年學雜志, 2018, 38(9): 2265-2268.
2. 國務院辦公廳. “十四五”國民健康規劃. 2022.
3. GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1204-1222.
4. 猶憶, 李德俊, 裴一霖, 等. 1990-2019年中國結直腸癌死亡趨勢及年齡-時期-隊列模型分析. 現代預防醫學, 2023, 50(18): 3281-3287.
5. 華淑名. “年齡-時期-隊列”效應模型的應用與發展. 信息系統工程, 2019, 309(9): 73-74.
6. 蒲星月, 鐘志剛, 朱立燕, 等. 2006-2020年中國艾滋病死亡趨勢的年齡-時期-隊列模型分析. 現代預防醫學, 2023, 50(2): 222-226, 238.
7. Hartholt KA, van Beeck EF, van der Cammen TJM. Mortality from falls in Dutch adults 80 years and older, 2000-2016. JAMA, 2018, 319(13): 1380-1382.
8. 杜文聰, 俞浩, 羅鵬飛, 等. 1990-2019年江蘇省老年人群跌倒疾病負擔分析. 中華疾病控制雜志, 2023, 27(10): 1133-1139.
9. Hughes CC, Kneebone II, Jones F, et al. A theoretical and empirical review of psychological factors associated with falls-related psychological concerns in community-dwelling older people. Int Psychogeriatr, 2015, 27(7): 1071-1087.
10. Pauelsen M, Nyberg L, R?ijezon U, et al. Both psychological factors and physical performance are associated with fall-related concerns. Aging Clin Exp Res, 2018, 30(9): 1079-1085.
11. Hallford DJ, Nicholson G, Sanders K, et al. The association between anxiety and falls: a meta-analysis. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci, 2017, 72(5): 729-741.
12. 劉悅, 米紅. 居住環境對老年人跌倒風險的影響分析-基于中國城鄉老年人生活狀況抽樣調查2015年數據. 人口與發展, 2021, 27(3): 123-132,109.
13. 世界衛生統計: 中國人均預期壽命77.4歲, 4類慢病導致過早死亡. 衛生經濟研究, 2022, 39(9): 85.
14. 周家璇, 王磊. 中國獨居老年人研究進展. 老齡科學研究, 2022, 10(9): 42-55.
15. 康寧, 于海軍, 陸曉敏, 等. 中國老年人跌倒發生率的Meta分析. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2022, 22(10): 1142-1148.
16. 李福鑫, 梁沛余, 段路路, 等. 西寧市區中老年人骨質疏松患病現況. 中國老年學雜志, 2021, 41(8): 1727-1729.
17. 楊善嵐, 涂嘉欣, 朱祥, 等. 中國老年人群傷害死亡率的Meta分析. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2022, 22(12): 1393-1399.
18. 中國康復醫學會老年康復專業委員會專家共識組, 上海市康復醫學會專家共識組. 預防老年人跌倒康復綜合干預專家共識. 老年醫學與保健, 2017, 23(5): 349-352.
19. 慈勤英, 程燕蓉. 以家為本, 老而不休: 農村老年人口勞動參與的家庭因素影響分析. 天府新論, 2022, (6): 74-86.
20. 馬建, 蘭澤龍, 陶榮琴, 等. 長沙市中老年人慢性病患病現狀及影響因素分析. 中國預防醫學雜志, 2021, 22(5): 321-328.
21. 郭雁飛, 馬文軍, 張慶軍, 等. 中國8個省份50歲及以上人群跌倒傷害及其危險因素橫斷面研究. 中華流行病學雜志, 2018, 39(3): 258-263.
22. Wu H, Mach J, Le Couteur DG, et al. Fall-related mortality trends in Australia and the United Kingdom: implications for research and practice. Maturitas, 2020, 142: 68-72.
23. Valderrama-Hinds LM, Al Snih S, Chen NW, et al. Falls in Mexican older adults aged 60 years and older. Aging Clin Exp Res, 2018, 30(11): 1345-1351.
24. 張航空. 中國老年人口受教育水平現狀及其變動. 中國老年學雜志, 2016, 36(5): 1215-1216.
25. 程兆輝, 賀知菲, 許小蘭, 等. 農村地區老年人健康知識、健康行為及影響因素研究. 中國衛生事業管理, 2022, 39(8): 600-605.
26. 陳飛, 王悠清. 1990-2019年中國食管癌疾病負擔及其變化趨勢分析. 中國腫瘤, 2021, 30(6): 401-407.

Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Trends and age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019

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