Brief Introduction of Methodology of Sequential Meta-analysis_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

 WENGHong ¹ , WUShan-shan ² , ZHANGYong-gang ³ , JINYing-hui ⁴ , CAOYue ¹ ,  ZENGXian-tao ^1,5

1. Center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University;Center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Wuhan University;Department of Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, The Second Clinical Medical College of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China;
2. National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, China;
3. Chinese Evidence-based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China;
4. Evidence-Based Nursing Center, Nursing School, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin 300193, China;
5. Department of Urology, Zhongnan Hospital, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China;

Corresponding?author：

ZENGXian-tao, Email: zengxiantao1128@163.com

Keywords：

Sequential analysis; Trial sequential analysis; Sequential meta-analysis; Meta-analysis

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.20160184

Video：

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Cumulative meta-analysis could help researchers to justify the effectiveness of the intervention and whether the obtained evidence is sufficient. However, the process of the meta-analysis does not adjust the repeated testing of the null hypothesis and neither quantifies the statistical power. The sequential meta-analysis has solved the aforementioned problems and has been widely used in the clinical practice and decision-making. Currently several methods of sequential meta-analysis have been proposed and these methods differ from each other. Of which, the methodology of trial sequential (TSA) is well developed and corresponding performance is relatively easy; the methodology of double-triangular test of Whitehead is lagged than TSA and its performance is relatively difficult; the approach of semi-Bayes refers to the theory of Bayes and it's very difficult to generalize. Our paper aimed to give a brief introduction of the methodology of the sequential meta-analysis.

Citation： WENGHong, WUShan-shan, ZHANGYong-gang, JINYing-hui, CAOYue, ZENGXian-tao. Brief Introduction of Methodology of Sequential Meta-analysis. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2016, 16(10): 1216-1220. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.20160184 Copy

1.	曾憲濤, 冷衛東, 郭毅, 等. Meta分析系列之一: Meta分析的類型. 中國循證心血管醫學雜志, 2012, 4(1): 3-5.
2.	Berkey CS, Mosteller F, Lau J, et al. Uncertainty of the time of first significance in random effects cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1996, 17(5): 357-371.
3.	Bollen CW, Uiterwaal CS, van Vught AJ, et al. Sequential meta-analysis of past clinical trials to determine the use of a new trial. Epidemiology, 2006, 17(6): 644-649.
4.	Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
5.	van der Tweel I, Bollen C. Sequential meta-analysis: an efficient decision-making tool. Clin Trials, 2010, 7(2): 136-146.
6.	Higgins JP, Whitehead A, Simmonds M. Sequential methods for random-effects meta-analysis. Stat Med, 2011, 30(9): 903-921.
7.	Shuster JJ, Neu J. A Pocock approach to sequential meta-analysis of clinical trials. Res Synth Methods, 2013, 4(3): 269-279.
8.	翁鴻, 李勝, 曾憲濤, 等. 試驗序貫分析軟件在Meta分析中的應用. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2016, 16(5): 604-611.
9.	劉樹賢. 臨床流行病學(六)——序貫試驗. 疑難病雜志, 2004, 3(4): 253-255.
10.	何清波, 蘇炳華. 成組序貫試驗的原理和方法. 現代預防醫學, 1999, 26(3): 310-312.
11.	Pocock SJ. Group sequential methods in the design and analysis of clinical trials. Biometrika, 1977, 64(2): 191-199.
12.	O'Brien PC, Fleming TR. A multiple testing procedure for clinical trials. Biometrics, 1979, 35(35): 549-556.
13.	Slud E, Wei LJ. Two-Sample Repeated Significance Tests Based on the Modified Wilcoxon. Statistic J Am Statist Assoc, 1982, 77(380): 862-868.
14.	Lan KKG, DeMets DL. Discrete Sequential Boundaries for Clinical Trials. Biometrika, 1983, 70(3): 659-663.
15.	Pogue JM, Yusuf S. Cumulating evidence from randomized trials: Utilizing sequential monitoring boundaries for cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1997, 18(6): 580-593.
16.	Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
17.	Brok J, Thorlund K, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(8): 763-769.
18.	Thorlund K, Devereaux PJ, Wetterslev J, et al. Can trial sequential monitoring boundaries reduce spurious inferences from meta-analyses?. Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 276-286.
19.	Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2009, 9: 86.
20.	王權, 田金徽, 李倫, 等. 試驗序貫分析簡介. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2013, 13(10): 1265-1268.
21.	王權, 田金徽, 李倫, 等. 試驗序貫分析與Meta分析所需樣本量的估算. 蘭州大學報: 醫學版, 2015, 41(4): 76-80.
22.	夏蕓, 孫瑛, 劉兆蘭, 等. 系統綜述或Meta分析的樣本量估算——試驗序貫分析. 現代中醫臨床, 2013, 20(5): 31-33.
23.	王歡, 胡厚祥. 試驗序貫性分析在隨機對照試驗Meta分析中的運用. 重慶醫學, 2015, 44(21): 2996-2999.
24.	Whitehead J. The Design and Analysis of Sequential Clinical Trials. Third edition. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 1997.
25.	Whitehead A, Whitehead J. A general parametric approach to the meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials. Stat Med, 1991, 10(11): 1665-1677.
26.	Whitehead A. A prospectively planned cumulative meta-analysis applied to a series of concurrent clinical trials. Stat Med, 1997, 16(24): 2901-2913.
27.	Whitehead A. Meta-Analysis of Controlled Clinical Trials. First edition. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2003.
28.	van der Tweel I, Bollen C. Sequential meta-analysis: an efficient decision-making tool. Clin Trials, 2010, 7(2): 136-146.
29.	Brok J, Thorlund K, Wetterslev J, et al. Apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be inconclusive——Trial sequential analysis adjustment of random error risk due to repetitive testing of accumulating data in apparently conclusive neonatal meta-analyses. Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 287-298.
30.	Elena K, John W. Trial sequential methods for meta-analysis. Res Syn Meth, 2014, 5(3): 212-220.

1. 曾憲濤, 冷衛東, 郭毅, 等. Meta分析系列之一: Meta分析的類型. 中國循證心血管醫學雜志, 2012, 4(1): 3-5.
2. Berkey CS, Mosteller F, Lau J, et al. Uncertainty of the time of first significance in random effects cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1996, 17(5): 357-371.
3. Bollen CW, Uiterwaal CS, van Vught AJ, et al. Sequential meta-analysis of past clinical trials to determine the use of a new trial. Epidemiology, 2006, 17(6): 644-649.
4. Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
5. van der Tweel I, Bollen C. Sequential meta-analysis: an efficient decision-making tool. Clin Trials, 2010, 7(2): 136-146.
6. Higgins JP, Whitehead A, Simmonds M. Sequential methods for random-effects meta-analysis. Stat Med, 2011, 30(9): 903-921.
7. Shuster JJ, Neu J. A Pocock approach to sequential meta-analysis of clinical trials. Res Synth Methods, 2013, 4(3): 269-279.
8. 翁鴻, 李勝, 曾憲濤, 等. 試驗序貫分析軟件在Meta分析中的應用. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2016, 16(5): 604-611.
9. 劉樹賢. 臨床流行病學(六)——序貫試驗. 疑難病雜志, 2004, 3(4): 253-255.
10. 何清波, 蘇炳華. 成組序貫試驗的原理和方法. 現代預防醫學, 1999, 26(3): 310-312.
11. Pocock SJ. Group sequential methods in the design and analysis of clinical trials. Biometrika, 1977, 64(2): 191-199.
12. O'Brien PC, Fleming TR. A multiple testing procedure for clinical trials. Biometrics, 1979, 35(35): 549-556.
13. Slud E, Wei LJ. Two-Sample Repeated Significance Tests Based on the Modified Wilcoxon. Statistic J Am Statist Assoc, 1982, 77(380): 862-868.
14. Lan KKG, DeMets DL. Discrete Sequential Boundaries for Clinical Trials. Biometrika, 1983, 70(3): 659-663.
15. Pogue JM, Yusuf S. Cumulating evidence from randomized trials: Utilizing sequential monitoring boundaries for cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1997, 18(6): 580-593.
16. Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
17. Brok J, Thorlund K, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(8): 763-769.
18. Thorlund K, Devereaux PJ, Wetterslev J, et al. Can trial sequential monitoring boundaries reduce spurious inferences from meta-analyses?. Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 276-286.
19. Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2009, 9: 86.
20. 王權, 田金徽, 李倫, 等. 試驗序貫分析簡介. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2013, 13(10): 1265-1268.
21. 王權, 田金徽, 李倫, 等. 試驗序貫分析與Meta分析所需樣本量的估算. 蘭州大學報: 醫學版, 2015, 41(4): 76-80.
22. 夏蕓, 孫瑛, 劉兆蘭, 等. 系統綜述或Meta分析的樣本量估算——試驗序貫分析. 現代中醫臨床, 2013, 20(5): 31-33.
23. 王歡, 胡厚祥. 試驗序貫性分析在隨機對照試驗Meta分析中的運用. 重慶醫學, 2015, 44(21): 2996-2999.
24. Whitehead J. The Design and Analysis of Sequential Clinical Trials. Third edition. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 1997.
25. Whitehead A, Whitehead J. A general parametric approach to the meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials. Stat Med, 1991, 10(11): 1665-1677.
26. Whitehead A. A prospectively planned cumulative meta-analysis applied to a series of concurrent clinical trials. Stat Med, 1997, 16(24): 2901-2913.
27. Whitehead A. Meta-Analysis of Controlled Clinical Trials. First edition. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2003.
28. van der Tweel I, Bollen C. Sequential meta-analysis: an efficient decision-making tool. Clin Trials, 2010, 7(2): 136-146.
29. Brok J, Thorlund K, Wetterslev J, et al. Apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be inconclusive——Trial sequential analysis adjustment of random error risk due to repetitive testing of accumulating data in apparently conclusive neonatal meta-analyses. Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 287-298.
30. Elena K, John W. Trial sequential methods for meta-analysis. Res Syn Meth, 2014, 5(3): 212-220.

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