Objective To investigate the predictive value of preoperative red blood cell distribution width to platelet count ratio (RPR) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) scoring for postoperative complications after radical resection of hepatic alveolar echinococcosis (HAE). Methods According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the clinicopathologic data of patients diagnosed with HAE and underwent radical hepatectomy in the Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University from January 2018 to October 2022 were retrospectively collected. The risk factors affecting postoperative complications after radical hepatectomy for HAE were analyzed by univariate and multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis, which were used to construct the nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the value in predicting postoperative complications by nomogram model. The discrimination of the nomogram was evaluated using Bootstrap internal 1 000 resampling and evaluated using a consistency index. The predicted postoperative complications probability by nomogram and actual postoperative complications probability were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method, and the calibration curve was drawn. The calibration ability of the nomogram model was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The decision curve analysis was used to evaluate clinical benefit of the nomogram model. Results A total of 160 patients with HAE radical hepatectomy were included, of which 105 had no postoperative complications and 55 had postoperative complications. The multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis showed that the operation time ≥207 min, intraoperative bleeding ≥650 mL, and albumin ＜38 g/L, RPR ≥0.054, and higher PALBI grading (3 levels) were the risk factors affecting postoperative complications after HAE radical hepatectomy (OR＞1, P<0.05). Based on the risk factors, the nomogram was constructed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95%CI) predicted by the nomogram for the postoperative complications was 0.873 (0.808, 0.937), with an optimal cutoff value of 0.499. The consistency index was 0.855 for discriminating postoperative complications after HAE radical hepatectomy. The calibration curve was tested by Hosmer-Limeshow and showed a good fit between the predicted curve by the nomogram and actual curve (χ²=3.193, P=0.367), indicating that the nomogram had a good calibration ability. The decision curve analysis showed that there was a good clinical applicability within the range of 11% to 93% of the threshold probability. Conclusions The preoperative RPR and PALBI scoring are risk factors affecting postoperative complications after radical hepatectomy for HAE. The nomogram constructed with risk factors including RPR and PALBI has a good predictive value for postoperative complications after radical hepatectomy for HAE.

Citation： HE Hongcai, SU Pengyu, HOU Lizhao, FAN Haining. A nomogram based on preoperative red blood cell distribution width to platelet count ratio and platelet-albumin-bilirubin scoring to predict postoperative complications after radical resection of hepatic alveolar echinococcosis. CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY, 2023, 30(7): 795-801. doi: 10.7507/1007-9424.202303078 Copy

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