Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting_Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

Authors：

DINGYa-gang , QIXiao-ke ,  ZHAOYuan

Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

ZHAOYuan, Email: drzhaoyuan@163.com

Keywords：

Coronary artery bypass grafting; Surgical risk evaluation; Surgical mortality

DOI：

10.7507/1007-4848.20160276

Video：

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Abstract Full text Figures/Tables Video References Cited by

Risk stratifications are valuable aids for stratifying patients by disease severity, driving informed clinical decisions, because they allow the selection of the most appropriate strategy of treatment based on the patient's individual characteristics. The clinical algorithms help patients and their families to get a better understanding of issues relevant to treatment strategies and subsequent risks as part of the process to obtain informed consent. The current risk stratifications of coronary artery bypass grafting included the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score, the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, SinoSystem for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation. This review focuses on the progress of risk stratifications of coronary artery bypass grafting for patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Citation： DINGYa-gang, QIXiao-ke, ZHAOYuan. Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting. Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 2016, 23(12): 1177-1182. doi: 10.7507/1007-4848.20160276 Copy

1.	Capodanno D, Tamburino C. Integrating the Synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score into practice: use, pitfalls, and new directions. Am Heart J, 2011, 161(3): 462-470.
2.	Parsonnet V, Dean D, Bernstein AD. A method of uniform stratifi-cation of risk for evaluating the results of surgery in acquired adult heart disease. Circulation, 1989, 79(6): I3-I12.
3.	Tu JV, Jaglal SB, Naylor CD. Multicenter validation of a risk index for mortality, intensive care unit stay, and overall hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery. Steering Committee of the Provincial Adult Cardiac Care Network of Ontario. Circulation, 1995, 91(3): 677-684.
4.	Higgins TL, Estafanous FG, Loop FD, et al. Stratification of morbi-dity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients. A clinical severity score. JAMA, 1992, 267 (17): 2344-2348.
5.	Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 1--coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S2-S22.
6.	Nashef SAM, Roques F, Michel P, et al. European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 16(1): 9-13.
7.	Zheng Z, Zhang L, Chinese Cardiovascular Surgery Registry. Chinese risk stratification scoring system for coronary artery bypass grafting. Zhonghua Xin Xue Guan Bing Za Zhi, 2010, 38(10): 901-904.
8.	Edwards FH, Grover FL, Shroyer AL, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database: current risk assess-ment. Ann Thorac Surg, 1997, 63(3): 903-908.
9.	Shroyer AL, Coombs LP, Peterson ED, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons: 30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models. Ann Thorac Surg, 2003, 75(6): 1856-1864.
10.	Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 3——valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S43-S62.
11.	Kirmani BH, Mazhar K, Fabri BM, et al. Comparison of the EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 risk tools. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2013, 44(6): 999-1005.
12.	Windecker S, Kolh P, Alfonso F, et al. 2014 ESC/EACTS Guidelines on myocardial revascularization: The Task Force on Myocardial Revascularization of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS)Developed with the special contribution of the European Association of Percutaneous Cardiovascular Interventions (EAPCI). Eur Heart J, 2014, 35(37): 2541-2619.
13.	Shih T, Paone G, Theurer PF, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database Version 2.73: More Is Better. Ann Thorac Surg, 2015, 100(2): 516-521.
14.	Roques F, Nashef SA, Michel P, et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 15(6): 816-822.
15.	Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, et al. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24(9): 881-882.
16.	Michel P, Roques F, Nashef SA, et al. Logistic or additive Euro-SCORE for high-risk patients? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2003, 23(5): 684-687.
17.	Graham I, Atar D, Borch Johnsen K, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: executive summary: Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Preven-tion in Clinical Practice (Constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J, 2007, 28(19): 2375-2414.
18.	Nashef SA, Roques F, Sharples LD, et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 41(4): 734-745.
19.	Chalmers J, Pullan M, Fabri B, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE II in a modern cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 43(4): 688-694.
20.	Biancari F, Vasques F, Mikkola R, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE Ⅱ in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2012, 93(6): 1930-1935.
21.	Grant SW, Hickey GL, Dimarakis I, et al. How does EuroSCORE II perform in UK cardiac surgery; an analysis of 23 740 patients from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland National Database. Heart, 2012, 98(21): 1568-1572.
22.	Nishida T, Sonoda H, Oishi Y, et al. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg, 2014, 18(4): 446-450.
23.	Yap CH, Reid C, Yii M, et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2006, 29(4): 441-446.
24.	Iyem, H. Evaluation of the reliability of the EuroSCORE risk analysis prediction in high-risk older patients undergoing CABG. Cardiovasc J Afr, 2009, 20(6): 340-343.
25.	Sergeant P, de Worm E, Meyns B. Single centre, single domain validation of the EuroSCORE on a consecutive sample of primary and repeat CABG. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2001, 20(6): 1176-1182.
26.	Parolari A, Pesce LL, Trezzi M, et al. Performance of EuroSCORE in CABG and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: single institution experience and meta-analysis. Eur Heart J, 2009, 30(3): 297-304.
27.	Kuwaki K, Inaba H, Yamamoto T, et al. Performance of the Euro-SCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. J Cardio-vasc Surg (Torino), 2015, 56(3): 455-462.
28.	Zheng Z, Li Y, Zhang S, et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study: how well does the EuroSCORE predict operative risk for Chinese population? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 35(1): 54-58.
29.	中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. 非體外循環冠狀動脈旁路移植術后早期死亡風險預測—SinoSCORE與EuroSCORE評分的對比. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 75-77.
30.	中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE對老年心血管外科患者的手術風險預測作用. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 84-86.
31.	郭惠明, 吳若彬, 肖學鈞, 等. SinoSCORE預測心血管外科手術病死率—廣東心血管病研究所經驗. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 78-80.
32.	錢永軍, 張爾永, 安琪, 等. SinoSCORE對成人心臟手術后院內死亡風險的預測—中國成人心臟外科數據庫華西醫院數據報告. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2012, 19(4): 362-365.
33.	劉曦, 陳彧, 趙舟, 等. SinoSCORE對冠狀動脈旁路移植術患者生活質量的預測價值. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2013, 20(6): 653-657.
34.	于泉, 王云, 顧繼偉, 等 SinoSCORE評估冠狀動脈旁路移植術后患者死亡風險的價值. 寧夏醫科大學學報. 2013, 35(4): 412-414.
35.	白云鵬, 劉建實, 陳慶良, 等. SinoSCORE對單中心CABG患者術后早期病死率及并發癥的預測效能分析. 天津醫藥, 2012, 40(11): 1114-1117.
36.	王崇, 韓林, 陸方林, 等. SinoSCORE預測瓣膜手術在院死亡風險—第二軍醫大學長海醫院胸心外科經驗. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2013, 29(4): 193-195.
37.	中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE對手術風險的評估作用. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 67-70.
38.	中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE預測瓣膜手術死亡風險. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 81-83.
39.	王崇, 韓林, 張冠鑫, 等. 心臟瓣膜手術在院死亡風險預測模型及評分標準的建立. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18(1): 2-10.
40.	江學成. 手術風險預測方法解讀. 中國實用外科雜志, 2007, 27(9): 746-749.
41.	Ivanov J, Tu JV, Naylor CD. Ready-made, recalibrated, or Remode-led? Issues in the use of risk indexes for assessing mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Circulation, 1999, 99(16): 2098-2104.
42.	徐志云. 心血管手術風險預測研究與現狀. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18(3): 187-188.
43.	連鋒, 戴晨陽, 張文天, 等. SinoSCORE與EuroSCORE對不停跳冠狀動脈旁路術后早期死亡預測評估比較. 上海交通大學學報(醫學版), 2014, 2: 165-168.
44.	張蔚然, 邵永豐, 張楊楊, 等. SinoSCORE和EuroSCOREⅡ對老年冠狀動脈旁路移植術患者死亡風險預測的價值. 江蘇醫藥, 2014, 40(13): 1517-1519.
45.	張春曉, 許建屏, 葛翼鵬, 等. 不同心臟手術風險預測評分系統對中國冠狀動脈旁路移植術后患者早期死亡的預測. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18(3): 194-198.

1. Capodanno D, Tamburino C. Integrating the Synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score into practice: use, pitfalls, and new directions. Am Heart J, 2011, 161(3): 462-470.
2. Parsonnet V, Dean D, Bernstein AD. A method of uniform stratifi-cation of risk for evaluating the results of surgery in acquired adult heart disease. Circulation, 1989, 79(6): I3-I12.
3. Tu JV, Jaglal SB, Naylor CD. Multicenter validation of a risk index for mortality, intensive care unit stay, and overall hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery. Steering Committee of the Provincial Adult Cardiac Care Network of Ontario. Circulation, 1995, 91(3): 677-684.
4. Higgins TL, Estafanous FG, Loop FD, et al. Stratification of morbi-dity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients. A clinical severity score. JAMA, 1992, 267 (17): 2344-2348.
5. Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 1--coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S2-S22.
6. Nashef SAM, Roques F, Michel P, et al. European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 16(1): 9-13.
7. Zheng Z, Zhang L, Chinese Cardiovascular Surgery Registry. Chinese risk stratification scoring system for coronary artery bypass grafting. Zhonghua Xin Xue Guan Bing Za Zhi, 2010, 38(10): 901-904.
8. Edwards FH, Grover FL, Shroyer AL, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database: current risk assess-ment. Ann Thorac Surg, 1997, 63(3): 903-908.
9. Shroyer AL, Coombs LP, Peterson ED, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons: 30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models. Ann Thorac Surg, 2003, 75(6): 1856-1864.
10. Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 3——valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S43-S62.
11. Kirmani BH, Mazhar K, Fabri BM, et al. Comparison of the EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 risk tools. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2013, 44(6): 999-1005.
12. Windecker S, Kolh P, Alfonso F, et al. 2014 ESC/EACTS Guidelines on myocardial revascularization: The Task Force on Myocardial Revascularization of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS)Developed with the special contribution of the European Association of Percutaneous Cardiovascular Interventions (EAPCI). Eur Heart J, 2014, 35(37): 2541-2619.
13. Shih T, Paone G, Theurer PF, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database Version 2.73: More Is Better. Ann Thorac Surg, 2015, 100(2): 516-521.
14. Roques F, Nashef SA, Michel P, et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 15(6): 816-822.
15. Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, et al. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24(9): 881-882.
16. Michel P, Roques F, Nashef SA, et al. Logistic or additive Euro-SCORE for high-risk patients? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2003, 23(5): 684-687.
17. Graham I, Atar D, Borch Johnsen K, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: executive summary: Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Preven-tion in Clinical Practice (Constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J, 2007, 28(19): 2375-2414.
18. Nashef SA, Roques F, Sharples LD, et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 41(4): 734-745.
19. Chalmers J, Pullan M, Fabri B, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE II in a modern cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 43(4): 688-694.
20. Biancari F, Vasques F, Mikkola R, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE Ⅱ in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2012, 93(6): 1930-1935.
21. Grant SW, Hickey GL, Dimarakis I, et al. How does EuroSCORE II perform in UK cardiac surgery; an analysis of 23 740 patients from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland National Database. Heart, 2012, 98(21): 1568-1572.
22. Nishida T, Sonoda H, Oishi Y, et al. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg, 2014, 18(4): 446-450.
23. Yap CH, Reid C, Yii M, et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2006, 29(4): 441-446.
24. Iyem, H. Evaluation of the reliability of the EuroSCORE risk analysis prediction in high-risk older patients undergoing CABG. Cardiovasc J Afr, 2009, 20(6): 340-343.
25. Sergeant P, de Worm E, Meyns B. Single centre, single domain validation of the EuroSCORE on a consecutive sample of primary and repeat CABG. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2001, 20(6): 1176-1182.
26. Parolari A, Pesce LL, Trezzi M, et al. Performance of EuroSCORE in CABG and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: single institution experience and meta-analysis. Eur Heart J, 2009, 30(3): 297-304.
27. Kuwaki K, Inaba H, Yamamoto T, et al. Performance of the Euro-SCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. J Cardio-vasc Surg (Torino), 2015, 56(3): 455-462.
28. Zheng Z, Li Y, Zhang S, et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study: how well does the EuroSCORE predict operative risk for Chinese population? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 35(1): 54-58.
29. 中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. 非體外循環冠狀動脈旁路移植術后早期死亡風險預測—SinoSCORE與EuroSCORE評分的對比. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 75-77.
30. 中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE對老年心血管外科患者的手術風險預測作用. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 84-86.
31. 郭惠明, 吳若彬, 肖學鈞, 等. SinoSCORE預測心血管外科手術病死率—廣東心血管病研究所經驗. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 78-80.
32. 錢永軍, 張爾永, 安琪, 等. SinoSCORE對成人心臟手術后院內死亡風險的預測—中國成人心臟外科數據庫華西醫院數據報告. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2012, 19(4): 362-365.
33. 劉曦, 陳彧, 趙舟, 等. SinoSCORE對冠狀動脈旁路移植術患者生活質量的預測價值. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2013, 20(6): 653-657.
34. 于泉, 王云, 顧繼偉, 等 SinoSCORE評估冠狀動脈旁路移植術后患者死亡風險的價值. 寧夏醫科大學學報. 2013, 35(4): 412-414.
35. 白云鵬, 劉建實, 陳慶良, 等. SinoSCORE對單中心CABG患者術后早期病死率及并發癥的預測效能分析. 天津醫藥, 2012, 40(11): 1114-1117.
36. 王崇, 韓林, 陸方林, 等. SinoSCORE預測瓣膜手術在院死亡風險—第二軍醫大學長海醫院胸心外科經驗. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2013, 29(4): 193-195.
37. 中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE對手術風險的評估作用. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 67-70.
38. 中國心血管外科注冊登記研究協作組. SinoSCORE預測瓣膜手術死亡風險. 中華胸心血管外科雜志, 2011, 27(2): 81-83.
39. 王崇, 韓林, 張冠鑫, 等. 心臟瓣膜手術在院死亡風險預測模型及評分標準的建立. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18(1): 2-10.
40. 江學成. 手術風險預測方法解讀. 中國實用外科雜志, 2007, 27(9): 746-749.
41. Ivanov J, Tu JV, Naylor CD. Ready-made, recalibrated, or Remode-led? Issues in the use of risk indexes for assessing mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Circulation, 1999, 99(16): 2098-2104.
42. 徐志云. 心血管手術風險預測研究與現狀. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18(3): 187-188.
43. 連鋒, 戴晨陽, 張文天, 等. SinoSCORE與EuroSCORE對不停跳冠狀動脈旁路術后早期死亡預測評估比較. 上海交通大學學報(醫學版), 2014, 2: 165-168.
44. 張蔚然, 邵永豐, 張楊楊, 等. SinoSCORE和EuroSCOREⅡ對老年冠狀動脈旁路移植術患者死亡風險預測的價值. 江蘇醫藥, 2014, 40(13): 1517-1519.
45. 張春曉, 許建屏, 葛翼鵬, 等. 不同心臟手術風險預測評分系統對中國冠狀動脈旁路移植術后患者早期死亡的預測. 中國胸心血管外科臨床雜志, 2011, 18(3): 194-198.

Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

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